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| Exciting times for oil barons like the Ewings (Sf46) |
Once upon a time, the United States depended on the
Middle East for its oil. It filled pages in newspapers, provided ammo for
whatever party was in the opposition and, according to some, precipitated the
invasion of Iraq.
Europe’s dependence on foreign fossil fuels is more obvious
in the gas department. While Eastern and Central Europe remained vulnerable to
the antics and blackmail of the Putin regime, the Mediterranean countries’
response to the Arab Spring was partly muted by their dependence on Northern
African hydrocarbons.
Now, both countries are implementing large-scale plans
to become energy-independent in the coming decades, but the paths they’ve
chosen could hardly be more different.
Following the example of its northern neighbours, the
United States is tapping vast shale gas and shale oil reserves which have the
potential to see it leapfrog Saudi Arabia and Russia to become the greatest oil
producer on Earth.
China, India and other developing nations in Asia will
surely be rubbing their hands at the prospect, as it means they’ll get Middle
Eastern oil on more advantageous terms than now. And, if they’re to continue
their galloping growth, they need it.
Europe, on the other hand, sticks to its commitment to renewables as a way of fighting climate change and moving towards energy security. With Germany, which has been praised for becoming “the first renewable economy” in the world. With the United Kingdom, which will see renewables overtake nuclear in their share of electricity production by 2018 despite a haphazard energy policy. With Greece, where Project Helios has captured the imagination of EU Energy Commissioner Günther Oettinger. And with a massive amount of renewable projects in the pipeline.
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| A green future for Europe, a not-so-rosy one for Vestas (Albert Bridge) |
While Europe is building a greener, better future,
things don’t look as good for its renewable energy industry. A row with China
over alleged solar panel dumping has gone all the way up to the WTO, while
Danish wind turbine giant Vestas announced this week that it would have to lay
off thousands more workers in an attempt to cut its big losses. If European
renewable manufacturers continue to suffer, we could end up in a curious
situation in which American and Chinese companies dominate the European market
while their own countries churn phenomenal amounts of CO2 into the
atmosphere.
This brings me to another point. In a report released
on Monday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) pointed out that burning more
than one third of the available hydrocarbon reserves would make it impossible
for the world to prevent disastrous climate change. If this threshold is
exceeded, global warming will exceed 2°C by 2050.
In the coming
decades, two models of energy independence will go head-to-head. Some are
already asking who’ll be the winner. But the truth is, if the world continues
to burn fossil fuels like there’s no tomorrow, there won’t be any winners. Only
losers.















